Does the Duckworth-Lewis method need an overhaul?

Last week WA were asked to make almost 7 runs an over against Qld after a tropical storm stopped play at the Gabba. WA had bowled well and Qld batted briskly at 4.5 an over before the rain arrived. The DL system assumes that teams will ramp up the run rate in the final overs and increases the target for rain affected matches based on the number of wickets lost and the number of balls remaining. But Qld were scoring as briskly as they could, they were not merely having a picnic and enjoying the view from the middle. The reason Qld had made 150 from their 30 overs was not that they were 'pacing themselves' but that WA bowled quite well. To ask WA to chase 193 from 30 overs was just too tough. Is the DL method really valid? In the match last week Qld just scraped home, but I think WA deserved the win. (And I'm Victorian so largely impartial as far as these teams go!)


Could these facts become reality?


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